If prices are rising, buy in advance

by Randy Gingeleski

2 minutes to read

I spent a lot on staple goods recently to get me through 2022. And also maybe +50% at minimal risk.

Post featured image

You may have noticed the prices of typical things starting to rise in the United States.

Why is that? “The news” might point to “weird” shortages or supply chain issues from lumber to soy beans.

Perhaps there is other rationale for prices to rise — and continue to rise 20-100% through 2022 — that’s above the average “news” consumer to understand.

We’ll get to that after first maneuvering around the situation somewhat.

Buy buy buy

Before you invest US$2,000 on anything else, bulk buys of things you’ll use regularly through 2022 seems advisable.

US$2,000 buys a lot of staple goods at the time of this writing but may not buy much if you read me years later 😛

At worst, you eat just the spatial cost in a pantry or closet. Prices of all these regular use items would need to decrease >2% per year* for you to take a financial loss.

*Where 2% is an extremely optimistic rate of annual inflation for the U.S. now.

Here’s what this looks like in practice, from me recently doing it —

Amazon bulk order in storage unit

Above you’ll see pretty generic items that might apply to you too.

  • Toothpaste
  • Tooth brushes or brush heads
  • Deodorant
  • Shaving cream
  • Shaving razors or blades
  • Condoms
  • Mouthwash
  • Various pre- and post-exercise supplements
    • i.e. BCAAs and EAAs
  • Various health supplements
    • i.e. high-absorption magnesium
  • Various thinking aids
    • i.e. nicotine gum for writing
  • Beef liver tabs

Grass-fed beef seems hella vulnerable to rising costs. 🐄📈

Buying in bulk usually pays, like Costco orders and considering unit price in “normal” times.

Buying in bulk especially pays during inflationary times.

In fact, you may save a lot of effort by going to your closet instead of making a Walgreens trip for regularly used items. And energy is a realer currency than the U.S. dollar.

A case for inflation

United States M1 money supply quadrupled — or worse — last year, per official FRED data.

Goods, assets, etc. have not quadrupled. Price increases come about when more circulating dollars compete for the same stuff.

Lots of money was locked up or “scared” until relatively recently. So inflation may really show its face in — late 2021?

I am no expert and none of this is financial advice.

FRED M1 supply graph 2000 through 2021

Closing thoughts

Do you think prices are going lower? No? Invest accordingly if you don’t want to be washed away.

And investing isn’t just for money but also energy, focus, etc. See my habits for thriving in uncertain times post.

Here’s to an exciting future. ✌️🌏